You know where this post is going. Shohei Ohtani is done pitching for 2023, and possibly heading for his second Tommy John surgery. I’m not going to say, “I told you so,” but earlier this month, I made the case for Ohtani to step away from pitching for the rest of 2023 and protect himself — and his potential forecasted most lucrative contract in baseball history. Instead, we watched Ohtani go out there in meaningless games for a team that probably wasn’t going to even bother making a contract offer. Now, Ohtani’s got a partially torn UCL and — at the time of writing — has been considering whether he’ll get his second Tommy John surgery.
The sports stations are now filled with reels discussing whether Ohtani loses his bid for AL MVP, and how much he’ll lose in his contract negotiations. Most surprising to me: the take that Ohtani, now hobbled by injury and made more affordable, might return to the Angels instead of going to a team that knows how to hire physicians and trainers. But hey, maybe my beloved Twins end up with Ohtani now (not a chance).
Let’s jump in and figure out how this messes up your fantasy teams for this year and next.
At the time of writing, Ohtani plans to be a batter only, at least until he decides when / whether to undergo Tommy John surgery. OK, so you’re not totally lost. You’ll still start Ohtani like 4-5 times a week and get those important dongs. But considering that Ohtani was also an elite starter — SP7 on the year according to the Player Rater — a bunch of teams are losing their team SP1 just as the fantasy playoffs kick off.
It’s all about timing.
We’ll talk about potential Ohtani replacements at the end of the article, but permit me to address my good dynasty/keeper managers who are probably trying to figure out what to do right now.
Ohtani’s dynasty value takes a major hit regardless of his decision for Tommy John. If he gets Tommy John — making it the second time in his career that he’s gone under the knife — he likely won’t pitch meaningful baseball until the end of 2025. So, wipe Ohtani’s value as an SP off your fantasy map for 2 years. The bonus for Ohtani is that he’ll be able to hit, and possibly be hitting more often because he won’t be resting or pulled in the 5th/6th inning on pitching days. So, compared to other Tommy John participants who aren’t two-way players, you’re getting most of Ohtani for the next two years. This isn’t like us losing Robbie Ray until the end of next year — we’ll see hitter Ohtani at some point in the first half of 2024.
If Ohtani doesn’t get a Tommy John surgery and instead decides to rehab, he’ll be in difficult territory. Most pitchers who choose the rehab option end up in varying levels of efficacy, with Zac Gallen and Masahiro Tanaka being the only notable successes (if you can call Tanaka a success). Y’all might remember Jacob deGrom effectively “rehabbed” his UCL — very quietly — and ultimately pitched fewer IP while doing so than many RP. I doubt that any team would advocate for rehab over surgery — it rarely has a better outcome than surgery, and — on the whole — has a return timeline that is just as long as Tommy John. If Ohtani rehabs his elbow, I’d say his 2024 draft value is 5th round or lower — he won’t be pitching, and he’ll essentially be a part-time DH clogging up your UTIL spot. Given the spotty (if not poor) track record of rehabbing for starting pitchers, Ohtani’s value in 2025/2026 could be even lower — think about the brief explosions of brilliance that led to long IL stints for deGrom, or the complete vanishing of Dinelson Lamet.
Back in Nihon, Ohtani played in the outfield when he wasn’t pitching. Other than a handful of games, the Angels never deployed Ohtani in the outfield, most likely because they absorbed that first Tommy John surgery and wanted to protect him. Now, if I’m Ohtani, I’m probably pointing to my history as an outfielder — 71 overall professional games between NPB and MLB, with his most recent MLB appearance in 2021 — and telling clubs, “I’ll be your Ichiro 2.0 in right field. You know I’ve got that laser beam! The mound was fun, but now it’s done.”
This is also called the “Bryce Harper” plan. If Ohtani has surgery in the next week — which probably isn’t happening — he could be back DH’ing next April or May and then take the outfield in June or July. He’ll play the next 10 years of his contract and we’ll all look back — not in anger. This is the most logical path for me. “But maybe Ohtani sucks as an outfielder,” you say. OK. Kyle Schwarber has lost 16 runs of value in the outfield this year, and over 60 runs over his career. I think Ohtani would be more than acceptable in right field.
If Ohtani does the Bryce Harper plan, I think it’s feasible that Ohtani is a low second round draft value in 2024 (because he’ll miss at least April and most of May), but he’ll gain that coveted OF eligibility (likely in June/July) and no longer fill up your UTIL. As the years go on, Ohtani would be one of the more valuable hitters in the game — he’s demonstrated his elite power and ability to steal some bags, and his AVG might improve if he’s not dedicating 75% of his practice time to arm rehab.
There’s also a rumor that Ohtani will remain a DH, except he’d become a high-leverage reliever or closer. I mean, sure. Nothing says “elite closer” like a guy who is out running the bases. Remember when Tony LaRussa didn’t know about the runner on 2nd in extra innings and had to send Liam Hendriks out to the basepaths, and how much fun the media had with that story? I feel the same way about DH/RP Ohtani. Imagine you’re the Yankees and you’ve signed Ohtani to be DH/RP. The Yankees are down a run in the 8th. DH Ohtani gets a single with two outs in the bottom of the 8th and is on the base paths. Eventually, his teammates hit him home, and the Yankees take the lead. When does RP Ohtani have time to warm up as a closer? So, Ohtani can’t really be the primary closer, but more like a committee closer…and really only the closer in games where his team is obviously ahead. The elite reliever is supposed to be ready to come in and throw major heat, which isn’t really possible if the closer is playing 5 days a week and never getting a chance to warm up properly.
If the DH/RP scenario comes into play, Ohtani probably falls to a fourth round value or below in 2024. He wouldn’t have the OF eligibility like in the Bryce Harper scenario, and wouldn’t be pitching in relief whatsoever in 2024. Ohtani could be a closer in 2025, but he’d be nearly impossible to use as a pitcher in NFBC leagues, and difficult to use in most standard fantasy leagues. Fingers crossed we don’t get this outcome.
The last option is status quo: DH/SP Ohtani. Ohtani gets surgery and returns as a hitter in May/June 2024 and as a starter at the end of 2025. Ohtani will be 31 years old by then. The half life of a pitcher isn’t terribly long. There’s every chance that Ohtani is ineffective as a pitcher until 2026 — SP returning from Tommy John rarely return to 100% efficacy right away, and pitchers who return from two TJ’s have it even tougher. MLB.com wrote up a list of pitchers who have had two Tommy John surgeries and succeeded after return, and the list is basically Nathan Eovaldi. Now, whether he’s succeeded is up to your interpretation.
DH/SP Ohtani is probably in the same boat as DH/RP Ohtani for 2024 — same hitting value as UTIL, no P appearances — and then maybe a notch higher for 2025. More likely, managers won’t see Ohtani see meaningful pitching games until 2026, and even then, it could be Nathan Eovaldi-like performances. Yeesh.
So for you dynasty managers — and everybody looking forward to early 2024 redrafts — those are your scenarios. We probably won’t hear which plan will come into play until Ohtani signs with a new team because every team will want the injury discount. But the least disruptive path forward for dynasty managers is OF/DH Ohtani, where he follows the Bryce Harper plan and gets Tommy John in the next week, and is ready to go for his new team in May 2024. He doesn’t touch the mound again in professional baseball, but we get one of the better hitters of our generation more at-bats and more daily playing time. ENYWHEY. Let me know what you think down in the comments.
Here are some matchups this week that I like:
Bryan Woo is available in a handful of leagues and matches up against OAK/ NYM this week. The Mariners decided they were going to win one for Robbie Ray and have surged into the lead in the hyper-competitive AL West. Woo isn’t an exceptional choice for a streamer, as he hasn’t notched a Win since June, but he’s got 3 quality starts out of his last 7 games, a lot of them against playoff caliber teams. Taking on the A’s and Mets should be an easy task for a Mariners team that wants to play meaningful baseball.
I argued against using Chris Sale last week, and I’ll continue that “avoid” recommendation this week. Sale is up to a whopping 5 IP and his K rate is increasing. The Red Sox are basically out of the playoffs (16% chance of inclusion) and Sale is still under contract for next year. If I’m the Sox, I’d prefer to give my rookies a cup of coffee during September callups and see what I have in the background while keeping Sale as an extended opener for 4-5IP at most. For fantasy, that’s pretty meaningless — almost no chance at a Win, and little impact to ratios.
JP Sears has been torched recently, which means he’s available in a few leagues. Again, I’m not here trying to recommend surefire SP, because they’re all taken already. But Sears has an xFIP 5 points below his ERA over the past few games with a K/9 rate that is near 11.5. He faces off against the Angels on Friday, and who knows…maybe Ohtani will be sitting by then.
Griffin Canning is available in half of leagues and faces the Athletics on Sunday — sure, I’ll roll the dice on that.
Johan Oviedo has 4 Quality Starts out of his last 8 starts…but those non-QS games are pretty ugly. He lives in the Midwest this week, facing the Royals and Cardinals, and would be an OK streamer for those of you in desperate situations.
Good luck as you enter those fantasy playoffs! Reminder that I answer questions on Monday nights only. If you need advice on other days, I recommend Grey’s daily column, or check in with Coolwhip on his weekly OF column.
