After a 5-1 road trip, the Cincinnati Reds are back home at Great American Ball Park. They will be kicking off a 4-game series with the 1st place Milwaukee Brewers. Tonight’s game is an unusual one as it begins at 5:10pm ET and it will be on Apple TV+. You will need a subscription to watch the game, but they reportedly do offer free trials (info from the Reds with sign up links here).
Starting Lineups
Starting Pitchers
Brandon Williamson
After a strong debut in Colorado, Brandon Williamson has run into some struggles the last two times out. Both outings saw him throw 4.1 innings and he’s allowed seven earned runs, walked seven batters, and struck out six in those 8.2 combined innings against the Cubs and Cardinals.
The splits for Brandon Williamson are quite big. Right-handed hitters have hit very well against him this season between Triple-A and the big leagues, posting a .950 OPS with nearly as many walks as strikeouts, while making plenty of contact. Left-handed hitters haven’t been given many chances to face him, but when they have there hasn’t been a lot going on. They have hit .260, but it’s been rather empty with only a few walks and no power.
Splits (AAA & MLB in 2023)
| Split | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| RHH | 174 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 25 | 31 | .295 | .402 | .548 |
| LHH | 54 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | .260 | .315 | .340 |
Pitch Usage (AAA & MLB in 2023)
| 4-seam | Cutter | Curve | Slider | Change | |
| Velo | 91.8 | 87.4 | 73.8 | 81.6 | 84.1 |
| Usage | 46% | 10% | 11% | 20% | 12% |
Corbin Burnes
After winning the Cy Young award in 2021, Corbin Burnes has taken small steps backwards in each of the last two seasons. Still a very good pitcher, he has been giving up hits, home runs, and walks more frequently, and in particular this year his strikeout rate has fallen off of the map by comparison (12.6 strikeouts per 9-innings in 2021 and just 8.3 this season).
The splits for Burnes are strange. Left-handed hitters walk far more often and strikeout at about the same rate as righties do, but they had an OPS 311 points lower. When lefties make contact they simple aren’t turning it into much of anything. Right-handed hitters, though, they are showing well across the board against Burnes and have an .805 OPS against him this season. Over the previous two years the splits were much closer, with lefties doing a little better – but still quite poor – against Burnes.
Splits
| Split | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| RHH | 133 | 33 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 28 | .275 | .338 | .467 |
| LHH | 132 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 31 | .167 | .258 | .237 |
Pitch Usage
| 4-Seam | 2-Seam | Cutter | Curve | Slider | Change | |
| Velo | 95.7 | 95.5 | 94.2 | 80.1 | 88.3 | 89.5 |
| Usage | 1% | 8% | 52% | 18% | 9% | 13% |
When and Where
- Game time: 5:10pm ET
- Where: Great American Ball Park
- Watch: Apple TV+
- Listen: 700 WLW AM (Cincinnati area)
- Forecast: 90°, sunny, 0% chance of rain
News and Notes
Joey Votto to begin a rehab assignment tomorrow
For the second time this year, Joey Votto will be heading to Triple-A Louisville for a rehab assignment. The Reds first baseman will join the Bats on Saturday as he takes another go at getting back into the swing of things after having shoulder surgery last August.
The All-Star voting is underway
If you are into voting for the All-Star game then now is your time to shine. You can vote now. Unfortunately you can’t vote for pitchers, but nothing is stopping you from writing Alexis Diaz in at other positions.
Standings
| Team | W | L | GB | Playoff Odds |
| Brewers | 29 | 27 | 0.0 | 52.0% |
| Pirates | 28 | 27 | 0.5 | 14.3% |
| Reds | 26 | 30 | 3.0 | 3.3% |
| Cardinals | 25 | 32 | 4.5 | 38.5% |
| Cubs | 24 | 31 | 4.5 | 14.0% |
| Playoff Odds via Fangraphs | ||||
