Usually, I try and write up a funny intro filled with anecdotes. I’m strictly about the business today. This may or may not be due to some lady cutting me off big time while I was driving my kids to school. Anyways, Christopher Morel has been all the rage this past week. And for good reason, as he smashed four home runs in seven games and has batted 3rd, leadoff, and leadoff in the last three contests. This has prompted people to make it rain at the Club de FAAB. Don’t mind the scraggly-looking guy with the sign outside Club de FAAB that reads: The World is Ending. Find Jesus. That’s just me bringing doom and gloom to the party.
Morel is 23 years old, 5-foot-11, 145 pounds, and bats from the right side. He signed with the Chicago Cubs back in 2015 as an international free agent.
He rose quickly through the minor league system, making it to Triple-A after four seasons. He stole 23 bases in Rookie ball then displayed the power/speed combo in Double-A with 17 home runs and 16 stolen bases in 417 plate appearances. The ISO was .212 but the slash was only .220/.300/.432 with a 29.7% strikeout rate.
He made it to the majors in 2022 and went for 16 home runs and 10 stolen bases in 425 plate appearances. The slash was .235/.308/.433 with a .198 ISO. The walk rate was 8.9% while the strikeout rate was 32.2%.
In my Duran article last week, I wrote that I no longer automatically shun the high strikeout players anymore. They can still rack up a ton of counting stats and, like Adolis Garcia this season, can improve the plate discipline numbers. That said, I do not like what I see from Morel right now.
The ISO is .467!!! The BABIP is .462!!! It’s only been 30 plate appearances, but….
The strikeout rate is 43.3%!!!
The Statcast numbers are mighty juicy, as the average exit velocity is 93.8 mph and the max EV is 113.6 mph. The barrel rate is 23.5% and the hard hit rate is 58.8%. I have a not-so-sneaky suspicion that all of the above numbers are not sustainable.
The flyball rate has increased to 52.9%, the first time over 45% in his career, and the launch angle has spiked up two percent. I’m not hating on those numbers and they are definitely positive, portending to a possible shift in approach. He’s pulling the ball 52.9%, which is higher than the last few years, but right in line with his early minor league career.
Now we get to my favorite part of the program: plate discipline.
The swinging strike rate is 23.4%! For perspective, Teoscar Hernandez currently has the highest number at 17.8%. The contact rate in the zone is only 70.3% while the contact rate in general is 58.3%. He’s swinging at 57.1% of the pitches that he sees and the chase rate is a whopping 41.1%.
To Morel’s credit, pitchers have been pounding him with fastballs (56.2%), and he’s whiffing 51.4% against the pitch, but he’s still posting a .300 batting average and .700 SLG against the pitch. Against breaking balls is where he’s made significant improvements. In 2022, he batted .197 with a .368 SLG against breaking balls. This season, he’s absolutely mashed, posting a .500 batting average with a 1.250 SLG.
ALERT! ALERT!
Small sample size. Small sample size. Small sample size.
Christopher Morel has seen 40 breaking ball pitches and 59 fastballs. The more pitches he sees, and the more pitchers figure out his holes, then the ISO, BABIP, and slash are all going to plummet.
Javier Baez and Adolis Garcia are my favorite players to think about when I dig into high-strikeout batters. Baez was able to have some monster seasons without making adjustments. That’s a testament to how freaking good of a hitter he was, but the league eventually figured him out.
I thought Garcia was the reincarnation of Baez, but he’s made some massive adjustments and is thriving. Could Morel follow in the path of Garcia? Sure, it’s well within the range of outcomes, but I need to see some tweaks first. With Garcia, there were incremental and tangible improvements in the plate discipline numbers in Year 2 compared to Year 1.
I acknowledge that getting in on guys before the numbers stabilize or show improvement is often the only way to get players. I just think that Christopher Morel maintaining this success and breaking out is a low probability event. I think it’s more likely that you’ll be able to get him off the wire later in the season.
