It’s crazy when people drive slow in the left-most lane on the freeway. It’s crazy that people spend over $5 every day for coffee when the Korean instant coffee packs come out to like $.20 each. They are delicious, by the way. It’s crazy that Razzball is not the most visited website on the internet. It’s crazy that people don’t consider Shohei Ohtani the greatest baseball player we have ever seen. It’s crazy that….Luis Robert Jr. has been dropped in 10.2% of ESPN leagues over the past week. Is that so cray cray? Let’s dig in.
Robert is 25 years old, 6-foot-2, 220 pounds, and bats from the right side. He defected from Cuba in 2016 and then signed a contract with the Chicago White Sox in 2017. He spent three seasons in the minors before making his MLB debut in 2020.
The power/speed combo has always been evident, but the batting average has been volatile while the strikeout rate was in the mid-20% range. He has shown spurts of greatness (AL Rookie of the Month in 2020 and finished 2nd in AL Rookie of the Year) but injuries have derailed his career. He only played 68 games in 2021 due to a hip flexor injury. In 2022, he only played 98 games due to a wrist injury, which is a shame because he was slashing .284/.319/.426 with a 19.2% strikeout rate that season. Granted, the ISO was only .142 but he had 12 home runs and 11 stolen bases in 401 plate appearances.
We fantasy nerds have always been entranced with Robert. In 2020, he was being selected with the 81st overall pick in NFBC drafts. In 2021, he vaulted all the way up to 38. In 2022, the rise continued as the ADP was 16. This season, he was being selected 46th on average, signifying the battle between “banana in the tailpipe” versus the allure of “power/speed” combo.
So why are fantasy nerds discarding him like chewing tobacco being spitted out?
In 119 plate appearances this season, Robert is slashing .216/.263/.405 with five home runs and one stolen base. the walk rate is 4.2% while the strikeout rate is 28.6%. The ISO is .189 while the BABIP is .264.
The walk rate was 4.2% last season but the strikeout rate is almost 10% higher. The low BABIP shows that there’s been some bad luck. He has a career .336 BABIP but is it just about bad luck?
Looking at the Statcast data, the average exit velocity is waaaaaay down, like career-low waaaaay down. Last season it was at 89.3 mph. This season it’s at 86 mph. The max exit velocity of 113.4 mph is also waaaay down from the 117.8 mph he had last season. The barrel rate of 10.3% is fine but, not surprisingly, the hard hit rate of 32.1% is a career low.
The batted ball data shows that he’s hitting fewer line drives and ground balls while increasing the fly ball rate by six percent. He’s not going oppo as much but the pull rate has remained the same.
The plate discipline numbers revealed some interesting things. The swinging strike rate has ticked up but he’s always had a high number. The contact rates have come down but the chase rate and overall swing rates have all seen significant downward movements. In addition, the called strike percentage spiked to 16.6%! That number has never been above 9.1% in his MLB career.
Looking at how pitchers are attacking him, the only discernible difference is that the curveball is being thrown more (11.2% vs. 7.8% last season). He saw 45.6% fastballs last season, and that number is at 45% so far this season.
The way that I interpret all of the above numbers is that Robert is just out of sorts right now. He’s hesitant, thinking too much, and not being aggressive. While 119 plate appearances is a decent sample size, it’s still only 119 plate appearances. If he stays healthy, there could be over 400 plate appearances left in the season. Streaks happen. Timing gets thrown off. In Robert’s case, the timing has never been calibrated.
Obviously, if he’s available in your league, you scoop him up. The upside is just too great. Now, there’s always injury risk, but you deal with that if it happens. I’d imagine that he is not available in most leagues, but I thought it would be interesting to dig a little deeper into Robert since some may have some concerns with him.
