The Cincinnati Reds are coming back home to open up a series against the Philadelphia Phillies tonight. The two teams faced off just last week, with the Phillies taking two of the three games in the series in Philadelphia. There should be plenty of familiarity between the two sides, with both teams having faced tonight’s starting pitchers already. First pitch tonight is set for 6:40pm ET. Today’s game is MLB.tv’s Free Game of the Day for those of you who are out of market.
Starting Lineups
Starting Pitchers
Nick Lodolo
This will be the second consecutive start for Nick Lodolo against the Phillies. Last week he was dominant against the defending National League champions, shutting them out for 7.0 innings and striking out 12 batters before watching the bullpen give up three runs and the Reds take the loss.
Managers do all that they can to avoid sending lefties to the plate to face Lodolo. The limited few hitters that seem to be deemed good enough be in the lineup against him probably shouldn’t be. Last year they managed to hit just .109 against him with one extra-base hit in 53 trips to the plate. This season so far they are 3-11 (.273) with no walks, no extra-base hits, and five strikeouts. Righties had far more success, hitting .252 in 2022 with a solid walk rate and solid power against him.
2022 Splits
Split | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
RHH | 388 | 85 | 14 | 3 | 13 | 9.0% | 28.4% | .252 | .351 | .427 |
LHH | 53 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7.5% | 39.6% | .109 | .226 | .130 |
Pitch Usage (from 2022)
4-Seam | 2-Seam | Change | Curve | |
Velo | 94.5 | 94.2 | 88.4 | 81.6 |
Usage | 36% | 23% | 11% | 30% |
Bailey Falter
Last week saw Falter match up against the Reds. He would throw 5.0 innings and give up a run on four hits. The lone run he allowed came on a homer. He’s given up a home run in each of his two starts this season. He also hasn’t walked a batter in either of his two starts this season.
Left-handed hitters didn’t hit for much average or get on base often against Falter last year. But when they did get hits, they were extra-base hits. Righties found far more success against him, posting an .818 OPS. Not shown in the below were the extreme home and road splits for Falter. In 2022 his ERA in Philadelphia was 5.49 (2.42 on the road) and batters had an .883 OPS against him (.695 on the road).
2022 Splits
Split | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG |
RHH | 275 | 69 | 13 | 2 | 13 | 15 | 56 | .273 | .324 | .494 |
LHH | 74 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 18 | .229 | .257 | .414 |
Pitch Usage (in 2022)
4-Seam | 2-Seam | Curve | Slider | Change | |
Velo | 91.6 | 91.2 | 76.7 | 83.8 | 83.3 |
Usage | 56% | 37% | 16% | 16% | 5% |
When and Where
- Game time: 6:40pm ET
- Where: Great American Ball Park
- Watch: Bally Sports Ohio, MLB.tv
- Listen: 700 WLW AM (Cincinnati area)
- Forecast: 78°, sunny, 0% chance of rain
News and Notes
Nick Senzel is back
The Reds have brought Nick Senzel back from his rehab assignment in Triple-A and have optioned outfielder Will Benson to Louisville to make room on the 26-man roster for Senzel.
Joey Votto is still “day to day” on rehab
Last night saw Votto go 1-1 with three walks for the Louisville Bats. He’s not quite ready to return to the big league club. He’s eligible to return now, but he can remain on rehab assignment until April 20th.
David Bell with an update on Joey Votto’s return: “Keep inching closer to where he feels healthy. He’s healthy, but he’s still fighting his way to getting all the way to where any player needs to be to be able to compete at this level. He’s not quite there yet. Still day to day.”
— Charlie Goldsmith (@CharlieG__) April 13, 2023
I don’t believe in jinxes
Michael Baumann wrote about Nick Lodolo over at Fangraphs this morning. And while he said he didn’t want to say that Nick Lodolo’s been the best pitcher in baseball so far this season, he’s not not saying it, either. He looked at a change that he made in the middle of last season and how it made a big difference in the results, and just how unique he is on the mound.
Standings
Team | W | L | GB | Playoff Odds |
Brewers | 8 | 4 | 0.0 | 65.3% |
Pirates | 7 | 5 | 1.0 | 6.3% |
Cubs | 6 | 5 | 1.5 | 16.2% |
Cardinals | 5 | 7 | 3.0 | 64.6% |
Reds | 4 | 7 | 3.5 | 1.2% |
Playoff Odds via Fangraphs |