What’s poppin, Razzpimples?
Last week’s goodness was my Top 20, so here’s the rest of that goodness: closers #21-40 for the 2023 fantasy baseball season.
Don’t forget to keep that Bullpen Chart bookmarked, y’all.
Let’s do it to it!
21. Jhoan Duran
Man, if this guy could just get a closing gig to himself. Sadly, Jhoan Duran is likely splitting closing duties with Jorge Lopez again, at least to start. But everything’s there for elite fantasy closer-ness if the stars can align. Last year, Duran fixed his atrocious BB% from 2021 (which came in only 16 IP, so not much of a sample anyway), getting that down to 6% while also repping a 33.5 K%. His whiffs (17.9 SwStr%) were among the very very best of everyone, and he got professional hitters of baseballs to chase out of the zone 40.2% of the time. The save totals keep him from being a top RP for fantasy purposes unless your league counts holds as well, then he’s one of the damn best all of a sudden.
22. Alex Lange
Said all I have to say about Alex Lange in this post. So far it’s just been more of the same from him this spring. I just got a feeling he wins the closing job early and keeps it — might be this ranking is even too low! I would slap this guy Top 15 if I knew he’d have the job to himself.
23. Jason Adam
Simply put, Jason Adam was one of the best pitchers in the league in 2022. I figure he’ll get a decent crop of save chances, though I’ve already written that I think Fairbanks gets the majority. But even so, Adam can help keep ratios in check and pad your Ks. And if you’re in a SVHD league then he’s an absolute badass. Seriously, go look at his Statcast. He basically had no flaws last year. Might even tack on a few wins for you.
24. Jorge Lopez
Jorge Lopez was practically a nobody entering 2022, with awful ratios and a very meager K% throughout his MLB career (mostly as a starter). So it makes perfect sense he finished the year with 23 SV, a 2.54 ERA, and a 1.18 WHIP. Lopez wasn’t nearly as good in Minnesota as he was in Baltimore, so it remains to be seen if he can find that form again and hold onto a share of the closing duties. I’m definitely a hell of a lot less confident in him than I am Duran, I just think Duran is so good that the Twins probably don’t want to save him just for the ninth every day. So, assuming save totals can get into a relatively solid neighborhood, Lopez is still a viable fantasy option.
25. Trevor May
Trevor May has been one of the steadier and better relievers in recent years. For the Mets, he was a setup master. Now with the A’s, he’s got a shot at closing games. My thought is he’ll get first crack at it, potentially beefing up his numbers in order to be trade bait this summer. He’s also just…the best arm they have? I don’t know if I buy Dany Jimenez making an impact anymore, as he’s already having velocity issues this spring. Zach Jackson is good but coming off a shoulder injury, though you’ll see his name later on in this list anyway. May is most likely your guy here, just be prepared for him to be dealt and become a setup guy again somewhere, depending on the where he could potentially end up.
26. Kendall Graveman
By now you’ve all heard about Liam Hendriks, so the logical next man up is the guy who’s had some success as a closer before: Kendall Graveman. He had 10 SV in 2021 and added 6 SV last season. Nothing spectacular, mind you, but the opportunity for steady chances is what’s likely in store for the Grave Man in 2023. I’m not even a little blown away by his 9.0 H/9 or 3.60 BB/9 though, so I really wouldn’t be shocked to see him flub his chances and cede them to a name you’ll see down at spot #31.
There are things to like and not like about Seranthony Dominguez. I like his 6.35 H/9 and 10.76 K/9. I don’t like that the Phillies bullpen is very crowded with plenty of guys who have closer experience. I like his 14.0 SwStr% and 76th percentile xBA. I don’t like his 5th percentile HardHit% and 14th percentile BB%. I think he’s the best bet to get the most saves, however, so that’s enough for me to get him inside the Top 30. He’s probably got 70+ K in him with respectable ratios and maybe, like, 15 SV?
28. Evan Phillips
That Evan Phillips Statcast page sure jumps out at ya! The man was lights out in 2022. Think if they just gave him the closing job he could probably return Top 10 or Top 15 value, but alas, who knows how this pen will shake out. I’m so shaky on it that I’m dodging Dodgers pen arms entirely in SV-only leagues. Outlets have him projected for 9-10 SV, and he may suffer from the Jhoan Duran Syndrome in that he’s too valuable to that pen to just be held for the ninth only.
29. Brandon Hughes
Raise your hand if you had Brandon Hughes down for 8 SV in 2022. I don’t believe you. He saw his first taste of MLB action at the ripe old age of 26 last year, posting a damng solid line: 2-3, 3.12 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 8 SV, and 68 K in 57.2 IP. Hughes was really good in the minors for the past few years and was able to be a pretty darn good pitcher in the majors after finally getting the call. At the moment, it’s unclear what the Cubs plan to do with the closer role. Consensus seems to be some kind of committee is forthcoming, and in my mind, Hughes is the frontrunner. It’s either him, newcomer Michael Fulmer, or other newcomer Brad Boxberger. The latter two don’t impress me much. Just super “meh” vibes, ya know? I guess I could see Adbert Alzolay making some noise, but I got a feeling he’s either worked into the rotation some or he’s a long reliever. Maybe I’m plumb wrong and he gets like 50 SV or something, but my money’s on Hughes to be the best fantasy RP out of this pen.
30. Jimmy Herget
I’ll admit I flubbed it in this post about Jimmy Herget, cuz I overlooked the fact Carlos Estevez was favored by at least a couple different Angels beat writers. But I also think Herget is the better of the two, and so far Spring Training numbers back this up in a biiiig way. To be fair, I put almost zero stock in ST numbers, but Estevez has already walked seven batters and allowed 5 ER in less than 2 IP lol. I’m pretty confident Herget pulls ahead sooner rather than later, coming off a season where he was 84th percentile in xERA/xwOBA and 75th percentile in xSLG. He showed stellar command in 2022, walking only 15 batters in 69 IP. Estevez was good in the second half, but Herget was better. Just look at this right here.
31. Reynaldo Lopez
There’s a twofold reason to ranking Reynaldo Lopez here: 1). one can only trust Kendall Graveman so much, and 2). he’s arguably the best arm in that pen, and that best arm may be even better in 2023 after an offseason spent with Driveline. Last year was a career-salvaging type year for ReyLo, who made the switch from starter to full-time reliever (65.1 IP, 6-4, 2.76 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 63 K). This Twitter thread breaks down the specifics, but the TL:DR version is he revamped his slider grip and hopes to see more success against LHB. His save total may be up in the air, but those of you in SVHD leagues will definitely want to target ReyLo.
32. Andrew Chafin
Blah, I dunno with this one. The Diamondbacks saves situation is a mess, so I’m just going with the guy who’s the best. Andrew Chafin has been one of the better relievers in baseball for the past couple seasons. He’s got good strikeout stuff and doesn’t allow all that many hits, and the ones he does allow tend to be softer (81st percentile in HH%). I’m doubly encouraged by his 87th percentile Whiff% and 89th percentile Chase Rate. The only thing with Chafin is he’s competing/sharing with Joe Mantiply (not quite as dynamic but walks almost no one) and Mark Melancon (straight up kinda sucks but had 18 SV last year) and Kevin Ginkel (has only 4 SV to his name and a 1.43 career WHIP)
33. A.J. Puk
Once upon a time, A.J. Puk was one of the sexier starting pitcher prospects in baseball. Sadly he’s more like B.A.D. Luk cuz he’s always hurt. Already battling a groin injury this spring, though it seems for now that he’s coming out the other end of that and could make his spring debut today. Assuming health (which is not a safe assumption, let’s be real), Puk might be the favorite the lead the Marlins in saves in 2023. He’s really competing with two guys in whom I have little confidence: Matt Barnes and Dylan Floro. Barnes has experience, though, and Floro compiled 10 SV last season with some pretty impressively boring metrics (I’ll touch on those later since I have Floro ranked #40). So again, assuming health with Puk, I think you can expect good ratios (3.12 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 66.1 IP last season) and 10-15 SV. He’s got the best K stuff, which I have most faith in.
34. Craig Kimbrel
Woof, I mostly whiffed on Craig Kimbrel last year. Pegged him as a top tier closer, only to be let down by a mere 22 SV, 3.75 ERA, and 1.32 WHIP. The save totals weren’t as expected, but they salvaged an otherwise pretty doo doo season. I mean, dude had a 42.7 K% and .158 xBA in 2021, so was it crazy to expect fantasy eliteness after taking Kenley Jansen’s place as Dodgers closer? Oh well. Now he’s with the World Series runners-up in Philly, though he’s part of a pen that has plenty of saves-capable arms. Tough to be very confident after last season, but Kimbrel’s pedigree still brings with it save chances methinks. I just don’t know if he’s still got the goods to overtake someone like Seranthony Dominguez in total value anymore.
35. Alex Vesia
Alex Vesia is a damn good thrower of baseballs. He’d be hella elite if not for a 10.2 BB%. But how do you like these apples: 34.2 K% in 2021 and 35.0 K% in 2022; .145 xBA in 2021 and .188 xBA in 2022; .261 xwOBA in both 2021 and 2022. Yeah, mans is good. Mans is real good. I’ve loved this dude in SVHD leagues for the past couple seasons and think he’s one of the very best options for those formats heading into 2023. With Kimbrel outta the way and Daniel Hudson’s health always in question, the path to some saves is there this year as well. I think his projected 4-6 SV is doing him a disservice.
36. Zach Jackson
So I wrote about Trevor May already, and the next man up after that is probably Zach Jackson. Last year, at 27 years old, Jackson got his first crack in the bigs, finishing with a 3.00 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and a juicy 67 K in just 48 IP. The good: very few hits allowed (28 in those 48 IP) and lots of Ks. The bad: a whole lotta walks (33!). More walks than hits allowed, oof. Those walks could be his downfall as far as trust in the ninth goes, but you also can’t deny he misses bats. Maybe May struggles, maybe he gets hurt, or maybe he gets traded. In either of those cases, Jackson is the guy I’d be looking at to step up and close out the season as what I like to call a Waiver Savior.
37. Brusdar Graterol
It’s really easy to like Brusdar Graterol maybe more than you should. You see a 99.7 MPH sinker, 99.4 MPH four-seamer, 95.6 MPH cutter, and 90.6 slider and think “Man, what’s his K%, like 55%?” Then you see it’s only 21.9%. You also see a somewhat perplexing .207 xBA, which of course ain’t bad, you’d just think it’d be better. It’s cuz that cutter ends up middle-middle way more often than it should and doesn’t generate many whiffs, yet it’s his second-most-thrown pitch, whereas his slider is his deadliest pitch (.193 xBA and 38.6 Whiff%) but was only thrown 19.3% of the time. Hard to argue with a 0.99 WHIP, I guess, thanks to his paltry 4.6 BB%. Lots of mouths to feed in the Dodgers pen, but you’ll notice three names on this list. Throw so many darts and you’re bound to hit a bullseye sooner or later. Mayhap all three of these Dodger names you see split save chances and walk away with like 10 apiece, I’m just more inclined to think Phillips earns the most, Vesia the next most, and then Graterol after that. Call it a gut feeling. I also just like the other two better cuz they have big-time strikeout prowess.
38. Carlos Estevez
Blargh. Obligatory Carlos Estevez ranking. I’m tacking him on here since he’s set to open the season as the Angels “favorite” for saves. I just can’t get behind the guy. Even aside from his dreadful spring thus far, he’s always been a low-20-something K% guy with a BB% that’s well below average. I mean, just go to his Statcast and scroll to the bottom and see his percentile rankings over the years. About the only red you see is fastball velocity. Whoopty doo, he can throw a hard fastball. Doesn’t mean it’s a good one. He’s garbage at whiffs, getting guys to chase, and at not getting hit hard. Still, maybe there are enough successful save conversions in the early goings to warrant this ranking. Maybe I’m just being too nice to the guy and he doesn’t even deserve this (which is what my heart is telling me).
39. Michael Fulmer
Michael Fulmer probably sees some save chances here or there to start, and if things begin to go south for Mr. Hughes, then maybe Fulmer could see himself as the favorite back there. It ain’t like he’s got all that much competition otherwise. Fulmer isn’t too much to write home about, but he did rack up 28 SVHD last season with a solid enough 3.39 ERA. You’ll notice I left off his WHIP there, which was an ugly 1.37. His BB% spiked from 6.7% in 2021 to 10.1% in 2022. We can pretend that was an outlier, as he’d never been worse than 8.8% in his career before that. So if you accept that, then you can feel comfortable that his WHIP will positively regress a decent amount. I’m not saying draft the guy, just keep a little eyeball on him. Sure, he’s a non-full-time-closer on an already bad team, but it’s feasible he finds himself in a position that’s favorable to fantasy relevancy at some point. Maybe.
40. Dylan Floro
Dylan Floro has 25 SV to his name over the last couple seasons. At times he looks like a dude who belongs in the ninth, and at other times he looks like a dude who belongs in the noneth. Lol see what I did there? I took “ninth” and “none” and made “noneth.” As in sometimes he belongs in no innings. Whew, okay, anyway…let’s get back to those impressively boring metrics I mentioned earlier. More red than I expected on his Statcast: very good at limiting hard hits, very solid xERA/xwOBA, good xSLG, good BB%, and very good Chase Rate. That came with a boring 43rd percentile K% and lowly 20% whiff rate, however. His 27.9 CSW% (Called + Swinging Strike %) is also pretty pedestrian stuff for a reliever, but then again with his SwStr% being so low, that’s not an awful number to have at all (his CStr%, or Called Strike %, was 19th best among all qualified RP). So, there’s actually a good deal to like here about Floro, it’s just he’s got a sexy new guy ahead of him (Puk), and also a guy who amassed 20 SV for Miami last season (Tanner Scott). If this list went to #41, I’d probably make it Scott based on his 20 SV from last season, but his absolute inability not to issue free passes probably keeps him from seeing many chances unless Puk/Floro get hurt or just really suck.
Alrighty, that does it for my closer rankings for 2023 fantasy baseball. Let me know how stupid I am in the comments!
I do some fantasy baseball as well as some fantasy hockey here at Razzball. Find me on Twitter: @jkj0787. DMs are always open for questions, comments, concerns, complaints, etc. Odds are good I’m drinking black coffee, dark beer, or some form of bourbon at any given time.
