Photo: Redleg Nation Staff
While things can and will change around Major League Baseball between now and the start of the season thanks to trades and injuries, the pre-spring training ZiPS projected standings are now out via Dan Szymborski and Fangraphs. The Cincinnati Reds are projected to finish at 70-92 according to the ZiPS projected standings. That would place them ahead of the 68-94 Pittsburgh Pirates within the division, and behind the St. Louis Cardinals, Milwaukee Brewers, and Chicago Cubs.
At a 70-win projection, that would make the Reds the better than the Washington Nationals, Colorado Rockies, and the previously mentioned Pirates in the National League. No team in the American League is projected below 70 wins, but the Kansas City Royals are at the bottom of the league and are projected with the same record as Cincinnati.
“The computer is a big fan of Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene,” said Szymborski. That echoes much of the Cincinnati Reds fanbase. He followed that up with “but doesn’t see much excitement elsewhere on the Reds’ roster,” and that’s where you’ll see a little bit more divisiveness within the fanbase. If you happened to miss the individual player ZiPS projections from earlier in the winter, you can check out what we had to say about them here.
ZiPS does think favorably of several of the Cincinnati Reds prospects. Now, you never really know how things are going to work out, but if we assume that ZiPS is right, how early some of those guys show up in the big leagues could play a factor in how many games the organization wins (and loses). One example here is Christian Encarnacion-Strand. He is a third baseman who came over in the trade of Tyler Mahle at the deadline last summer and ZiPS would have him lead the team in home runs with 27 if he played in the big leagues all year long. It’s unlikely he will make the team out of spring training, but he projects to be the best hitter on the team in 2023 (Jake Fraley edges him out, but ZiPS doesn’t see him playing full time and not cracking 375 plate appearances on the year) and having that sooner rather than later would help things out.
