Anthony Santander hit how many homers in the 2nd half?! I’ve read the number five times from three different sources, and now I’m on the phone with AppleCare asking them if my computer has been hacked.
“No, my computer is acting fine, but I think someone hacked into Anthony Santander’s player page at every source for baseball stats and they changed his 2nd half home run total.”
“I’m not sure I know what you mean.”
“I opted into you recording this call, so go back and listen to what I just said until you understand it.”
Hmm, I think we got disconnected. Has to be an innocent mistake because I pay them to answer all my computer-related questions. Assuming no one hacked my computer (not sure!), it says that Anthony Santander hit 18 homers in the 2nd half of last season. Almost as impressively, he only had a 16.7% HR/FB. That was in 67 games and 260 at-bats. Picks up the phone at Target to announce something to the whole store, “I’ll take some of that, nah’mean?!” Anthony Santander currently has a 140 overall ADP, and his end-of-the-season rank on the Player Rater was 70th, so, yeah, it’s all about profit without one step forward from him. He can repeat the previous year and we can go *folds arms, leans back on chaise lounge, shuts eyes, and snoozes for five seconds, then shoots up* And we’d be good! So, what can we expect from Anthony Santander for 2023 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
Psyche! Before we get into the Anthony Santander sleeper post, just wanted to announce that I’ve begun to roll out my 2023 fantasy baseball rankings on our Patreon. What a way to start your New Year, when it’s the New Year, in a few days. Hey, no time like present for the future! Anyway II, the Anthony Santander sleeper:
Wanna spend some time on how he hit .241 in 21 after 20, then .240 last year. First off, too bad he didn’t hit .241 multiple years in a row or he’d be allowed to sleep with Khris Davis’s wife. With her permission, of course! It’s a golden ticket for his Willy. It would appear that he’s a .240 hitter. Steamer projects Anthony Santander to be a .245 hitter. Here’s where you’re going want to try to hold your head together, because I’m about to blow your mind. He’s more like a .260 hitter. Kaboom! Your medulla oblongta is behind you. I’ll wait until you put your stuffing back in your head. He actually hit .261 back to back years before the attempt to get groovy with Mhris Davis. He went from a 23.1% strikeout rate guy to 18.9% last year. The BABIP tanked last year mostly because he hit everything in the air. That’s the conundrum here. You want balls in the air — hey now! — but not so many that he hits .240. Well, let me addendum my conundrum as I bang that drum while sucking a Dum Dum lollipop, you can get by with a .240 average from him, but .260 would be sweet. As mentioned in the opening, he had a .240 average and still was almost seventy spots better on the Player Rater than his current ADP, so, yeah, .240 is fine. .260 is butter. And better.
About that flay ball rate (because that’s kinda everything with Anthony Santander), if it does stay around 50%, and keeps his average at .240, then I’d be kinda surprised if he doesn’t eclipse his 33 homers hit last year. His 14.5% HR/FB is nothing for him. His 2nd half HR/FB% of 16.7 isn’t even that high. He could easily fall into a 18% HR/FB. Might be high, but it could happen. Let’s say he’s a 16% HR/FB guy across the whole year, to be conservative. If his fly ball rate stays at 50%, he’ll hit 227 fly balls — what’s up, Marla Gibbs? — and that would mean 36 homers. Hello, darling, you are so pretty, you wanna come over for some cake and a little rub down? 36 homers is only three homers more than he hit last year, but last year he was still crazy valuable compared to his ADP. So, he hits 36/.240 or 30/.260, either way, there’s nothing but profit here. There’s even a chance he connects the two possibilities and hits 36 homers and .260, and is a top 10 outfielder. It’s all profit here, assuming the Orioles don’t move the fences back again a few hundred miles, and into Virginia. For 2023, I’ll give Anthony Santander projections of 77/35/92/.244/1 in 563 ABs with a chance for more.