This is one of those sleeper posts where I’m fighting with myself not to say one thing the entire time, so I’m going to put it out there up front, and then we don’t need to address it again until the very end when I wrap up the entire post. Tyler O’Neill was hurt last year. May as well just throw out his entire season. He went 14/14/.228 in 334 ABs or 96 games, and *crumbles it up, tosses it in the garbage, claps hands together to indicate all done with that*. Just one of those seasons that occasionally gets a guy and us fantasy baseballers (<–my mom’s term!) to think that’s the new normal. So many examples of this, but one that comes to mind is Mookie Betts. Betts said he was hurting, wasn’t right, had a down 2021, and everyone was like, “Welp, that sucks, Betts is done now forever.” He wasn’t and I don’t think we should make the same mistake with Tyler O’Neill. You know how injury news websites put the injury in parenthesis after a guy’s name? Last year, they could have had Tyler O’Neill (everything). Neck? Check! Hamstring? You betcha! Tyler O’Neill (leg)? (Yes!) Wrist? Indeed! Hamstring again? Ha, you’re catching on now. And, p to the erhaps, the worst for a hitter, shoulder. The shoulder is actually the only one I’m still worried about, because those injuries tend to linger, but that was one of his first injuries of the 40 some-odd day-to-day injuries he encountered last year, and he returned from the shoulder injury, so I think we’re fine. Take all of those injuries, and a slump that he couldn’t shake because of rust, and, seriously, crumble them up and Kobe it into the nearest garbage can. So, what can we expect from Tyler O’Neill for 2023 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
Psyche! Before we get into the Tyler O’Neill sleeper post, just wanted to announce that I’ve begun to roll out my 2023 fantasy baseball rankings on our Patreon. It’s an early Hanukkah miracle! Or late Hanukah miracle, depending on when Hanukkah is this year. The Jews should really decide on one day to start Hanukah each year, and stick with it. It’s better for branding. Anyway II, the Tyler O’Neill sleeper:
Here’s what I said last preseason, “None of the following mean much on their own, but here they are together: 17.9% barrel%, that’s top 3% in the league; 93 MPH exit velo, that’s top 6%; xSLG is .581, that’s top 3%; .384 wOBA is top 7%; same for his .391 xwOBA; and his 52.2% HardHit% is top 7%. His strikeouts (31.3%) worry me a bit, but last year was the star mitzvah for Tyler O’Neill; this year he goes to the Prom with a girl that looks like a young Sarah Jessica Parker. And Just Like That…I love Tyler O’Neill.” And that’s me quoting me! Don’t forget about his Star Mitzvah, guys and five girl readers. That’s what this post is, a reminder of how great Tyler O’Neill was and how all he needs to do is recapture, like, 80% of the glory.
Last year, even in a season when he had multiple hamstring injuries, he had 14 steals. With limited pickoff attempts, could Tyler O’Neill steal 20 bags? I don’t think so, but it also wouldn’t shock me. I’d put it as a 15% chance of happening, and it’s on the table as a possibility. You see Golschmidt run on the Cards and you realize that Oli Marmol has no problem letting guys run. Think people see O’Neill and immediately infer he has no real speed, or maybe that “five to seven-ish steal speed you get from a corner infielder or outfielder,” but it’s not that. Last year he was 15th in all of the majors for sprint speed, and the year before? Also 15th fastest. Not saying he’s going to steal 30 bags, but don’t underestimate Tyler O’Neill’s ability to take a bag. He’s got that profile that could sneak into the top 20 overall with a good year. Top 20 overall? Oh yeah, check the next paragraph:
He’s got huge power. I led with his speed because that might be the most surprising, but the bankable skill here is his 40-homer power. He hit 34 homers in 21 after 20, and unless he’s the newest Cody Bellinger with that shoulder injury, that feels like the floor vs. ceiling. O’Neill’s biggest problem in that quoted section from the previous preseason? His strikeout rate. Yet, even that he’s corrected since. As guys age, they either say, “Eff it, I’m going by way of Joey Gallo — Wayo? — and swing for the fences and strikeout,” or they say, “I wanna be like Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo and cut my strikeouts.” O’Neill raised his walk rate, cut his strikeouts and upped his contact from 67.5% to 72.5%. The one troubling thing here is he made much more contact with pitchers’ pitches, which isn’t ideal, but neither is your haircut and we’re still friends.
Right now, Tyler O’Neill’s barely a top 100 drafted guy. So, we’re not talking about a fantasy baseball sleeper that you’re going to draft around 250th overall in your final round, but there’s value to be had here. Tyler O’Neill feels like a guy who will be a top 15 overall draft pick next year, if he’s indeed healthy. An injury discount this enticing? Sign me up! For 2023, I’ll give Tyler O’Neill projections of 74/31/88/.246/17 in 531 ABs with a chance for much more.
