Fox Bet Live posted its latest World Series odds on Tuesday, and there’s some very interesting news for betting Dodgers fans.
The Dodgers are listed at +333 to win the World Series, just ahead of the Mets at +350. Interestingly, while the Padres, Phillies, and Brewers are battling for the final two Wild Card spots, their World Series odds are vastly different, with the Padres at +1300, the Phillies at +2500, and the Brewers at +2800.
For those unfamiliar with money line betting odds, +333 means if you were to bet $100 on the Dodgers to win the World Series and they did, you would win $333 (on top of your initial $100). When money line odds are listed with a negative sign in front of them, the number is the amount you would have to bet in order to win $100. So if a team is listed at -170 odds to win a game, that means if you bet $170 on them and they won, you would win a total of $170 (your initial $170 plus $100). When we’re talking about World Series odds at this point in the season, no team is going to have a better than 50 percent chance of winning it all, so all the odds start with a +.
It’s also worth noting that betting odds don’t necessarily correlate with actual “chances” of winning the World Series. Betting odds are set by oddsmakers with the goal of getting as much betting action as possible. Odds are constantly adjusting based not just on how the teams are performing, but how the betting lines are performing as well.
But even in simulations based on actual chances to win the World Series, the Dodgers are the favorites. Baseball-Reference lists their World Series odds, which they explain as:
MLB playoff odds are based on 1000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team’s estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor.
By those odds, the Dodgers have a 23 percent chance of winning the World Series, with the Yankees and Astros at 19.5 and 19.4 percent, respectively. The Dodgers also have the best chance to reach the World Series, at 38.4 percent.
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