If you ever wondered how committed the Braves were to Austin Riley, they expressed their feelings clearly on Monday, agreeing with him on a 10-year, $212 million contract that will keep him in the lineup through at least the end of the 2032 season. After 2021’s breakout campaign, Riley has proceeded to break out once more, hitting .301/.360/.604 for 4.6 WAR in 101 games, that slugging percentage being enough to lead all National League hitters. The Braves also get an option season for 2033.
As a prospect, Riley was at risk, at times, of falling into the tweener gap, that dreaded place where a player doesn’t field well enough to handle third base in the majors but also doesn’t have the bat to be a good starter at first. His runner-runner breakouts have eliminated the chances of that scenario; he’s adequate enough defensively to stick at the hot corner for now, and his bat is more than capable enough to keep him a plus at first or designated hitter.
Like most of the rest of the team, Riley got off to a relatively slow start this season; at one point in late May, his line stood at an unimpressive .224/.309/.436. But from that May 22 nadir, he’s wreaked havoc on pitching staffs around the league, putting up a monster .350/.395/.713 line with 21 homers in 61 games:
Offensive Leaders, Last 30 Days
Over the last 30 days, nobody’s been more of an offensive force than Riley, and he’s a primary reason that the Mets feel a lot less comfortable in the NL East than they did a few months ago. He’s put himself into the thick of the NL MVP race, and if you believe the ZiPS projections, his onslaught against the league’s hurlers isn’t stopping any time soon:
2022 ZiPS Projection – Austin Riley
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | DR | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | .286 | .351 | .554 | 587 | 88 | 168 | 33 | 2 | 40 | 106 | 52 | 170 | 1 | 131 | -4 | 4.7 |
| 2024 | .284 | .352 | .562 | 566 | 86 | 161 | 33 | 2 | 40 | 105 | 52 | 168 | 1 | 133 | -4 | 4.6 |
| 2025 | .282 | .350 | .559 | 556 | 85 | 157 | 33 | 2 | 39 | 103 | 51 | 165 | 1 | 132 | -5 | 4.3 |
| 2026 | .283 | .350 | .561 | 540 | 82 | 153 | 32 | 2 | 38 | 99 | 50 | 156 | 1 | 133 | -6 | 4.1 |
| 2027 | .286 | .352 | .558 | 525 | 79 | 150 | 31 | 2 | 36 | 96 | 48 | 145 | 1 | 133 | -6 | 3.9 |
| 2028 | .283 | .348 | .543 | 506 | 74 | 143 | 29 | 2 | 33 | 89 | 45 | 137 | 1 | 128 | -7 | 3.3 |
| 2029 | .279 | .343 | .529 | 484 | 68 | 135 | 27 | 2 | 30 | 83 | 42 | 128 | 1 | 123 | -8 | 2.7 |
| 2030 | .275 | .338 | .505 | 461 | 62 | 127 | 24 | 2 | 26 | 74 | 38 | 117 | 1 | 116 | -10 | 2.0 |
| 2031 | .271 | .332 | .478 | 435 | 55 | 118 | 22 | 1 | 22 | 65 | 34 | 105 | 1 | 108 | -11 | 1.3 |
| 2032 | .265 | .321 | .447 | 407 | 48 | 108 | 18 | 1 | 18 | 56 | 29 | 91 | 1 | 98 | -12 | 0.5 |
ZiPS projects that if Riley hit free agency this winter, he’d merit a 10-year, $258 million contract, though he wasn’t going to get quite that much as a consequence of not making it to the open market until after the 2025 season. The computer projects arbitration year salaries of $9.2 million, $15.5 million, and $21.3 million, giving an overall estimate of $202 million over 10 years. In other words, my projections consider this a very reasonable contract, one in which Riley is selling his free agent years to Atlanta at a fair price. If the defensive projections turn out correct, he may need to move off of third base toward the end of his time in Atlanta, but it’s way too soon to start fretting about the exact configuration of 2030’s lineup.
That Atlanta would agree to this deal after very team-friendly contracts to Ronald Acuña Jr. (eight years, $100 million) and especially Ozzie Albies (seven years, $35 million) demonstrates how much Riley means to the franchise. In terms of rest-of-career WAR, ZiPS now ranks him as the top third baseman in baseball, his recent offensive outburst being just enough to force José Ramírez out of the top spot.
Extending Riley also means that the Braves’ infield is locked up for the rest of the decade, with just one exception in free agent-to-be Dansby Swanson. The Braves are in a quite comfortable payroll situation, though, meaning that even a big extension for Riley doesn’t automatically preclude them from closing a smaller one for Swanson. Our updated measurements for Atlanta’s future payroll have a luxury tax number under $130 million already baked in, and that’s after including Riley’s cash. Swanson is the team’s only key free agent — we can fight about Kenley Jansen if you have the notion to — and Max Fried’s first year of arbitration isn’t going to increase the payroll by an enormous amount. Even without going through the luxury tax threshold, Atlanta’s existing team-friendly contracts result in the franchise having the flexibility to re-sign Swanson with enough breathing room to add an outfielder, an innings-consuming starter, and a reliever or two in the offseason. It’s a good thing for the Mets that Steve Cohen appears much more inclined to drop serious wads of cash than the Wilpons ever did.
Braves history has been blessed with some amazing third basemen, from Hall of Famers Eddie Mathews and Chipper Jones to other very good players like Darrell Evans and Bob Elliott. In Riley, the 2020s Braves have a third baseman who can stand among that group without looking out of place.
