Return of the ace – by G. Scott Thomas

Justin Verlander is back — all the way back.

The 39-year old Houston Astros righthander missed most of 2020 and all of 2021 with Tommy John surgery. The big question was whether he would retain his effectiveness in 2022 after such a long layoff.

The answer is yes.

Verlander went 6-1 with a 1.22 earned-run average during the first quarter of the current season, a six-and-a-half-week period that ended on May 22. Those are outstanding stats in anyone’s book.

Equally impressive was his first-quarter base value of minus-46, easily the best figure in the majors. BV is the number of bases that a pitcher allows hitters to reach, balanced against the big-league average. Verlander yielded 46 fewer bases than the typical major-league pitcher under the same circumstances. (Click here for details on the calculation of base values.)

The pitchers with the best (and worst) base values in both leagues are listed below. I generated similar calculations for hitters on Tuesday, with one key difference. Batters aim for a strongly positive BV, indicating that they’ve piled up more bases than their average counterpart, while pitchers seek a heavily negative number.

No pitcher dropped farther into negative territory than Verlander during the first quarter. He let batters reach only 53 bases, while notching 154 outs. The typical pitcher would have given up 99 bases under those conditions, as determined by multiplying Verlander’s outs by the major-league average for bases per outs (BPO): 154 times .640. The resulting difference (53 minus 99) is Verlander’s BV of minus-46.

Zac Gallen of the Arizona Diamondbacks was the National League leader at the quarter pole with a base value of minus-33.

The worst BVs in the respective leagues were plus-39 for Carlos Hernandez of the Kansas City Royals in the AL and plus-45 for Vladimir Gutierrez of the Cincinnati Reds in the NL.

Club-by-club breakdowns of the best and worst base values for pitchers can also be found below. All stats are as of the morning of May 22.

A new installment will arrive in your email each Tuesday and Friday morning

• 1. Justin Verlander, Astros, -46 BV

• 2. Martin Perez, Rangers, -31

• 3. J.P. Feyereisen, Rays, -28

• 4. Michael Kopech, White Sox, -26

• 4. Alek Manoah, Blue Jays, -26

• 6. Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays, -25

• 7. Keegan Akin, Orioles, -24

• 7. Nestor Cortes, Yankees, -24

• 7. Clay Holmes, Yankees, -24

• 7. Shane McClanahan, Rays, -24

• 7. Jeffrey Springs, Rays, -24

• 1. Zac Gallen, Diamondbacks, -33 BV

• 2. Pablo Lopez, Marlins, -29

• 3. Miles Mikolas, Cardinals, -27

• 4. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers, -25

• 4. Max Scherzer, Mets, -25

• 6. Ryan Helsley, Cardinals, -23

• 7. Corbin Burnes, Brewers, -22

• 7. Kyle Wright, Braves, -22

• 9. Joe Musgrove, Padres, -21

• 10. Max Fried, Braves, -20

• 10. Connor Overton, Reds, -20

• 10. Dillon Peters, Pirates, -20

• 1. Carlos Hernandez, Royals, 39 BV

• 2. Adam Oller, Athletics, 34

• 3. Aaron Civale, Guardians, 27

• 4. Kris Bubic, Royals, 26

• 5. Marco Gonzales, Mariners, 24

• 6. Taylor Hearn, Rangers, 22

• 6. Spenser Watkins, Orioles, 22

• 8. Chris Flexen, Mariners, 21

• 9. Nathan Eovaldi, Red Sox, 19

• 9. Vince Velasquez, White Sox, 19

• 1. Vladimir Gutierrez, Reds, 45 BV

• 2. German Marquez, Rockies, 33

• 3. Elieser Hernandez, Marlins, 29

• 4. Patrick Corbin, Nationals, 26

• 4. Heath Hembree, Pirates, 26

• 6. Hunter Greene, Reds, 25

• 6. Reiver Sanmartin, Reds, 25

• 8. Dauri Moreta, Reds, 24

• 9. Antonio Senzatela, Rockies, 23

• 10. Joan Adon, Nationals, 22

• Angels — top BV: Shohei Ohtani, -18; bottom BV: Jose Suarez, 15

• Astros — top BV: Justin Verlander, -46; bottom BV: Jose Urquidy, 17

• Athletics — top BV: Paul Blackburn, -21; bottom BV: Adam Oller, 34

• Blue Jays — top BV: Alek Manoah, -26; bottom BV: Jose Berrios, 13

• Guardians — top BV: Sam Hentges, -12; bottom BV: Aaron Civale, 27

• Mariners — top BV: Logan Gilbert, -17; bottom BV: Marco Gonzales, 24

• Orioles — top BV: Keegan Akin, -24; bottom BV: Spenser Watkins, 22

• Rangers — top BV: Martin Perez, -31; bottom BV: Taylor Hearn, 22

• Rays — top BV: J.P. Feyereisen, -28; bottom BV: Chris Mazza, 17

• Red Sox — top BV: Michael Wacha, -15; bottom BV: Nathan Eovaldi, 19

• Royals — top BV: Brad Keller, -18; bottom BV: Carlos Hernandez, 39

• Tigers — top BV: Tarik Skubal, -19; bottom BV: Tyler Alexander, 14

• Twins — top BV: Joe Ryan, -16; bottom BV: Chris Archer, 12

• White Sox — top BV: Michael Kopech, -26; bottom BV: Vince Velasquez, 19

• Yankees — top BV: Nestor Cortes and Clay Holmes, -24; bottom BV: Jameson Taillon, 8

• Braves — top BV: Kyle Wright, -22; bottom BV: Charlie Morton, 14

• Brewers — top BV: Corbin Burnes, -22; bottom BV: J.C. Mejia, 7

• Cardinals — top BV: Miles Mikolas, -27; bottom BV: T.J. McFarland, 18

• Cubs — top BV: Scott Effross, -12; bottom BV: Kyle Hendricks, 21

• Diamondbacks — top BV: Zac Gallen, -33; bottom BV: Caleb Smith, 17

• Dodgers — top BV: Clayton Kershaw, -25; bottom BV: Tyler Anderson, 8

• Giants — top BV: Jarlin Garcia, -16; bottom BV: Anthony DeSclafani and Jake McGee, 15

• Marlins — top BV: Pablo Lopez, -29; bottom BV: Elieser Hernandez, 29

• Mets — top BV: Max Scherzer, -25; bottom BV: Trevor May, 9

• Nationals — top BV: Sean Doolittle, -8; bottom BV: Patrick Corbin, 26

• Padres — top BV: Joe Musgrove, -21; bottom BV: Dinelson Lamet, 15

• Phillies — top BV: Zach Eflin, Kyle Gibson, and Zack Wheeler, -7; bottom BV: Brad Hand and Ranger Suarez, 6

• Pirates — top BV: Dillon Peters, -20; bottom BV: Heath Hembree, 26

• Reds — top BV: Connor Overton, -20; bottom BV: Vladimir Gutierrez, 45

• Rockies — top BV: Tyler Kinley, -9; bottom BV: German Marquez, 33